In a recent article, Entertainment Weekly has taken a collective swipe at Kindle poster girl Amanda Hocking and at Kindle king John Locke. In a July 20th article, Rob Brunner claims: "It's a shame, then, that their books are so much less exciting than their stories." Hocking is praised for her storytelling instincts, but trashed with lines like these: "Her work reads like a high school creative-writing assignment, full of typos and misused words and lifeless language." John Locke fares no better with Brunner, who claims that "Locke's idea of a zingy line is: ''I lock the front door, then move through Phyllis' office like clap through a *****house.'' It's cheap stuff, which makes sense given that the book sells for just 99 cents." This makes me wonder: despite Locke's much-printed quote on the matter, does price really reflect value?
In my opinion, the next big Kindle stars will most likely be those who realize that price and value are not synonymous. While I haven't read either Hocking or Locke and thus cannot comment on their writing, whatever the quality may or may not be, the article did get me thinking. Those two Kindle giants nailed the supposed marketing formula for selling ebooks--and no, it wasn't just cheap pricing. It was marketing and promotion, using the blogosphere and the world of online bloggers to their advantage, pricing to undercut potentially better competition, and persistence, including persisting with the copious number of ebooks they've e-published.
Still, it isn't just formula. Pixie dust is involved too. Even so, if no one universal formula for success exists, will there be patterns and will they be the same as last holiday season? May vague guess is: yes and no. While some of this may be obvious, in my opinion, the next ebook stars to emerge after the holiday will take advantage of or benefit from the following patterns:
a. The Free Phenomenon. I predict that the next big Kindle stars will not just have $0.99 ebooks, but will have free ebooks in time for Christmas along with cheaply priced ebooks. It will become increasingly commonplace, even expected, by readers that the first installment of an indie trilogy or series be free, and that the next installments be free or cheaply priced. The next Kindle stars will take advantage of manipulating Kindle into giving some of their titles away for free and learning, through fluid pricing models, which books to offer for free and which to price cheaply in time to make money during the more commercial months ahead.
b. Community. One aspect I never truly realized about the indie experience is how much it is community-driven. That's not to say a great book with pulp appeal won't catch on. It's simply to say that the readers who connect with other indies, who build their online profiles, who blog, and who have a presence at various forums, tend to do better (duh!), and this will continue to distinguish more authors in the age when anyone can publish. Whoever the next big e-stars may be, they will have online communities behind them.
c. It ain't just Kindle anymore. It will feel like the next big e-stars' ebooks are everywhere--not just in the Kindle store--because they are everywhere. This won't be exclusively a Kindle phenomenon. Authors will break out big with Kobo, Sony, Barnes and Noble, and Google, and will take advantage of every available platform for their work. They'll still stand out in the Kindle store, but these other venues will also produce stars, especially as the competition between e-reading devices heats up. If these future stars' books are everywhere, it doesn't much matter which e-reader company wins out this holiday season, as the next big
e-stars' books will win too. Even so, wouldn't it be good marketing for Google, Sony, and others to have their own e-stars too? If a star breaks out in their ebook store, that ebook store somehow looks that much bigger in comparison to Amazon.
d. The $99 e-reading device barrier will be broken. Either this Chrismas shopping season, or a Christmas shopping season thereafter, e-reading devices will go below the $100 mark, leading to a new wave of purchases. This will be crucial in giving authors a push at potential readers and will lead a few authors to break any records Hocking and Locke may have set.
e. Genre-bending. I may be proven flat out wrong here, but I don't think readers of series are just going to want carbon copies of New York titles. I think the next big books are going to genre-bend just a bit to give audiences a fresh spin on an intensely popular genre. I also don't think this exclusively means paranormal romance or erotica, either. I think mystery / thriller and sci-fi / fantasy are also poised for breakout e-stars this holiday season.
f. Bold, bold prediction I may wish I never made! Sometime in this decade, the next huge author (Meyer big) will break out in ebooks rather than in print. Given all the marketing and promotion that goes into making a star, this seems rather bold. However, with the power of online communities and sites, it's only a matter of time before the next major star breaks out independently and uses an online model to capture and intereact with his / her fan base. I'm not saying that it will have to be Pottermore big, but this star will have an online presence or connectivity with their fans that truly sets him or her apart.
Will I be proven right? Only time will tell. And if I'm wrong? Luckily, posts can be deleted!
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